Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

CANNABIS: Ethnobotany and Evolution     

Chris S. Duvall 《Geographical review》2014,104(4):523-526

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Recent Developments in the Analysis of the Black Mat Layer and Cosmic Impact at 12.8 ka     

William C. Mahaney  Leslie Keiser  David H. Krinsley  Allen West  Randy Dirszowsky  Chris C.R. Allen  Pedro Costa 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2014,96(1):99-111

Recent analyses of sediment samples from “black mat” sites in South America and Europe support previous interpretations of an ET impact event that reversed the Late Glacial demise of LGM ice during the Bølling Allerød warming, resulting in a resurgence of ice termed the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling episode. The breakup or impact of a cosmic vehicle at the YD boundary coincides with the onset of a 1‐kyr long interval of glacial resurgence, one of the most studied events of the Late Pleistocene. New analytical databases reveal a corpus of data indicating that the cosmic impact was a real event, most possibly a cosmic airburst from Earth's encounter with the Taurid Complex comet or unknown asteroid, an event that led to cosmic fragments exploding interhemispherically over widely dispersed areas, including the northern Andes of Venezuela and the Alps on the Italian/French frontier. While the databases in the two areas differ somewhat, the overall interpretation is that microtextural evidence in weathering rinds and in sands of associated paleosols and glaciofluvial deposits carry undeniable attributes of melted glassy carbon and Fe spherules, planar deformation features, shock‐melted and contorted quartz, occasional transition and platinum metals, and brecciated and impacted minerals of diverse lithologies. In concert with other black mat localities in the Western USA, the Netherlands, coastal France, Syria, Central Asia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, it appears that a widespread cosmic impact by an asteroid or comet is responsible for deposition of the black mat at the onset of the YD glacial event. Whether or not the impact caused a 1‐kyr interval of glacial climate depends upon whether or not the Earth had multiple centuries‐long episodic encounters with the Taurid Complex or asteroid remnants; impact‐related changes in microclimates sustained climatic forcing sufficient to maintain positive mass balances in the reformed ice; and/or inertia in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation system persisted for 1 kyr.  相似文献   

Post-peak,fluid-mediated modification of granulite facies zircon and monazite in the Trivandrum Block,southern India     

Richard J. M. Taylor  Chris Clark  Ian C. W. Fitzsimons  M. Santosh  M. Hand  Noreen Evans  Brad McDonald 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(2):1-17

The quarry at Kottavattom in the Trivandrum Block of southern India contains spectacular examples of fluid-assisted alteration of high-grade metamorphic rocks. Garnet-biotite gneiss has undergone a change in mineral assemblage to form submetre scale orthopyroxene-bearing patches, later retrogressed to form an amphibole-bearing lithology. These patches, often referred to as arrested or incipient charnockite, crosscut the original metamorphic foliation and are typically attributed to passage of a low aH₂O fluid through the rock. Whilst this conversion is recognised as a late stage process, little detailed chronological work exists to link it temporally to metamorphism in the region. Zircon and monazite analysed from Kottavattom not only record metamorphism in the Trivandrum Block but also show internal, lobate textures crosscutting the original zoning, consistent with fluid-aided coupled dissolution-reprecipitation during formation of the orthopyroxene-bearing patches. High-grade metamorphism at the quarry occurred between the formation of metamorphic monazite at ~585 Ma and the growth of metamorphic zircon at ~523 Ma. The fluid-assisted alteration of the garnet-biotite gneiss is poorly recorded by altered zircon with only minimal resetting of the U–Pb system, whereas monazite has in some cases undergone complete U–Pb resetting and records an age for fluid infiltration at ~495 Ma. The fluid event therefore places the formation of the altered patches at least 25 Myr after the zircon crystallisation in the garnet-biotite gneiss. The most likely fluid composition causing the modification and U–Pb resetting of zircon and monazite is locally derived hypersaline brine.  相似文献   

Cloud computing and virtualization within the regional climate model and evaluation system     

Chris A. Mattmann  Duane Waliser  Jinwon Kim  Cameron Goodale  Andrew Hart  Paul Ramirez  Dan Crichton  Paul Zimdars  Maziyar Boustani  Kyo Lee  Paul Loikith  Kim Whitehall  Chris Jack  Bruce Hewitson 《Earth Science Informatics》2014,7(1):1-12

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) facilitates the rapid, flexible inclusion of NASA observations into climate model evaluations. RCMES provides two fundamental components. A database (RCMED) is a scalable point-oriented cloud database used to elastically store remote sensing observations and to make them available using a space time query interface. The analysis toolkit (RCMET) is a Python-based toolkit that can be delivered as a cloud virtual machine, or as an installer package deployed using Python Buildout to users in order to allow for temporal and spatial regridding, metrics calculation (RMSE, bias, PDFs, etc.) and end-user visualization. RCMET is available to users in an “offline”, lone scientist mode based on a virtual machine dynamically constructed with model outputs and observations to evaluate; or on an institution’s computational cluster seated close to the observations and model outputs. We have leveraged RCMES within the content of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, working with the University of Cape Town and other institutions to compare the model output to NASA remote sensing data; in addition we are also working with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). In this paper we explain the contribution of cloud computing to RCMES’s specifically describing studies of various cloud databases we evaluated for RCMED, and virtualization toolkits for RCMET, and their potential strengths in delivering user-created dynamic regional climate model evaluation virtual machines for our users.  相似文献   

The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Steve J. Maddox  Ed Hawkins  John A. Peacock  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Bryn Jones  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1485-1494

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Large area forest inventory using Landsat ETM+: A geostatistical approach     

Qingmin Meng  Chris Cieszewski  Marguerite Madden 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2009,64(1):27-36

Large area forest inventory is important for understanding and managing forest resources and ecosystems. Remote sensing, the Global Positioning System (GPS), and geographic information systems (GIS) provide new opportunities for forest inventory. This paper develops a new systematic geostatistical approach for predicting forest parameters, using integrated Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images, GPS, and GIS. Forest parameters, such as basal area, height, health conditions, biomass, or carbon, can be incorporated as a response variable, and the geostatistical approach can be used to predict parameter values for uninventoried points. Using basal area as the response and Landsat ETM+ images of pine stands in Georgia as auxiliary data, this approach includes univariate kriging (ordinary kriging and universal kriging) and multivariable kriging (co-kriging and regression kriging). The combination of bands 4, 3, and 2, as well as the combination of bands 5, 4, and 3, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and principal components (PCs) were used in this study with co-kriging and regression kriging. Validation based on 200 randomly sampling points withheld field inventory was computed to evaluate the kriging performance and demonstrated that band combination 543 performed better than band combination 432, NDVI, and PCs. Regression kriging resulted in the smallest errors and the highest R-squared indicating the best geostatistical method for spatial predictions of pine basal area.  相似文献   

The 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO (2SLAQ) Luminous Red Galaxy Survey     

Russell Cannon  Michael Drinkwater  Alastair Edge  Daniel Eisenstein  Robert Nichol  Phillip Outram  Kevin Pimbblet  Roberto De Propris  Isaac Roseboom  David Wake  Paul Allen  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Daniel Carson  Kuenley Chiu  Matthew Colless  Warrick Couch  Scott Croom  Simon Driver  Stephen Fine  Paul Hewett  Jon Loveday  Nicholas Ross  Elaine M. Sadler  Tom Shanks  Robert Sharp  J. Allyn Smith  Chris Stoughton  Peter Weilbacher  Robert J. Brunner  Avery Meiksin  Donald P. Schneider 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(1):425-442

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The importance of interactions for mass loss from satellite galaxies in cold dark matter haloes     

Alexander Knebe  Chris Power  Stuart P. D. Gill  Brad K. Gibson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(2):741-750

We investigate the importance of interactions between dark matter substructures for the mass loss they suffer whilst orbiting within a sample of high-resolution galaxy cluster mass cold dark matter (CDM) haloes formed in cosmological N -body simulations. We have defined a quantitative measure that gauges the degree to which interactions are responsible for mass loss from substructures. This measure indicates that interactions are more prominent in younger systems when compared to older more relaxed systems. We show that this is due to the increased number of encounters a satellite experiences and a higher mass fraction in satellites. This is in spite of the uniformity in the distributions of relative distances and velocities of encounters between substructures within the different host systems in our sample.
Using a simple model to relate the net force felt by a single satellite to the mass loss it suffers, we show that interactions with other satellites account for ∼30 per cent of the total mass loss experienced over its lifetime. The relation between the age of the host and the importance of interactions increases the scatter about this mean value from ∼25 per cent for the oldest to ∼45 per cent for the youngest system we have studied. We conclude that satellite interactions play a vital role in the evolution of substructure in dark matter haloes and that a significant fraction of the tidally stripped material can be attributed to these interactions.  相似文献   

I-band time-series observations of five bright ultracool dwarfs     

Chris Koen 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,354(2):378-386

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